Dear commentators and comment writers:
Vancouver likely does not have a 33% advantage, all things being equal, by being up one game and having two games left. This would mean they have 4:3 odds (57.1428…% chance of winning the series).
From high school math (we all did pay attention, didn’t we?), Vancouver can either win next game OR lose next game and win the game after that to win the series.
In “math”:
P(Vancouver winning) = P(Win Next Game) + P(Lose Next Game) x P(Win Final Game)
The trick then is picking reasonable numbers for these probabilities. Certainly , P(Vancouver winning) = 4/7 (57%) for some choices of these probabilities, but I can’t think of any motivation whatsoever to choose them.
If you consider that Vancouver has won 5/10 away games and 10/13 home games, you’re looking at P(Vancouver winning) = 88%.
If you consider Boston has won 5/11 away games and 9/12 home games, you’re looking at P(Vancouver winning) = 3/12 + 9/12 * 6/11 = 65%.
If you consider that Vancouver had no hope of winning in Boston, then they still have a 77% chance of walking away with the cup.
If both teams have two great final games (which I hope they do – they’re a hellova lot of fun to watch), the games will be decided on a lucky bounce (let’s say 50-50). Vancouver ends up with a 3:1 advantage (75% chance of winning, or 200% “advantage”).
But please, think of the poor math before you spew useless nonsense to fill time. Thanks.